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Using Analytics To Improve Health Outcomes July 7, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Healthcare.
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One area where healthcare has definitely lagged other industries like consumer products and financial services has been in the area of analytics. Silverlink Communications is the first company to bring analytics to the area of healthcare communications.

We have been doing this for years and focus on the different ways to use analytics to improve results. This is not simply custom reporting which is what lots of people mean when they talk about analytics. And, it’s a lot more than simply best practices like co-branded communications (i.e., employer plus health plan) work better than communications simply from a health plan to a member (patient / consumer).

Interested in learning more…We are hosting a webinar series this month that might interest you. The first one is tomorrow.

It includes Stephen Baker who wrote The Numerati; Kinney Zalesne who wrote Microtrends; and Tom Davenport who wrote Competing on Analytics. You can register here.

If you enjoy this topic, I would also encourage you to register and read our white paper on Adaptive HealthComm Science (which is what we call our approach to healthcare analytics for communications). We also have a video on engaging consumers in their healthcare. Both can be found at the bottom of our homepage at www.silverlink.com.

Why Frameworks Matter July 6, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Healthcare.
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I hope you all had a good Fourth of July. One thing I always think about this time of year is my perception of fireworks. I’ve never been a big fan.

Of course, like most young boys, I had my fascination with fireworks, but after two incidents, I began to view them as more dangerous.

When I was about 10, I had a pack of firecrackers go off right near my ear just as I threw them. Then, in high school, I remember watching bottle rockets hit someone’s house and worrying about it catching fire (which it didn’t).

Why should you care (this is a health care blog – right)?

I think it’s important because our frameworks about going to the doctor, going to the dentist, eating healthy, exercising, preventative care, and so many other things are set in place as we grow up. As a parent, you need to think about the example you are creating. As a communicator to the patient later in life, you need to think about what their attitudes are towards health.

Two-Thirds Support A Public Plan? July 6, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Healthcare.
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According to the latest research from a Kaiser Health Tracking Poll of 634 respondents from June 1-8th:

Since, I strongly believe responses are biased by context, I wonder how many people respond that way when they realize that they will be pushed to this plan. [The Lewin Group estimates that as many as 118.5M people (2/3rds of those who have insurance today) would be shifted to public coverage.]

Poll On Cost Of Treatment For Life Extension July 6, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Healthcare, PBM / Pharmacy, Value Propositions.
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A hot topic is how much is an additional day / month of life is worth.  With some costs for a medication rising to $50,000 or more, this is something that we need to grapple with.  I’m interested in your thoughts on the following questions:

  • What would you pay for an additional day / month of life?
  • What would you expect your employer to pay for you to have an additional day / month of life?
  • What would you expect your insurance company to pay for you to have an additional day / month of life?
  • What would you pay if there was a 1 in 1,000 chance that the additional month turned into an additional year?
  • Does that change if there is significant pain involved in the extension of life (i.e., you aren’t comfortable during your additional days/months)?

Deloitte 2009 Survey of Health Care Consumers July 5, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Books / Articles, Consumerism, Healthcare, Managed Care, PBM / Pharmacy, Research.
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This is based on a Deloitte web-survey of 4,001 Americans in October 2008.

  • 73% are confused about how the US healthcare system works
  • Over 1/2 believe that 50% or more of healthcare dollars are wasted
  • 7 of 8 Americans believe themselves to be in good health
  • 1 in 3 are interested in working with a health “coach” to help them create and stick to a plan
  • 68% are interested in home monitoring devices that would check their condition and send results to their MD
  • 3 in 5 say financial penalties would improve their adherence
  • Only 1 in 3 Rx users say they compared treatment options
  • 22% say they looked or asked for information about a health insurance plan in the last 12 months
  • 9% have a PHR
  • Physicians who are more prescriptive (paternal) were preferred by a ratio of 2:1
  • 8 in 10 say they would consider switching from a physician recommended Rx if a pharmacist (RPh) indicated a cheaper alternative was available
  • Only 12% said they understood the term – biologics (should they?)
  • 35% are willing to accept a smaller provider network for a reduced premium and lower copayments
  • Only 25% favor increasing taxes to help cover the uninsured

Their major conclusions were:

  1. Health care is a consumer market
  2. The health care market is not homogeneous
  3. Cost concerns are changing behaviors
  4. Consumers want holistic care and resources to pursue wellness and healthy living
  5. Consumers embrace innovations that enhance self-care, convenience, personalization, and control of their personal health information

Impact on Life Expectancy July 5, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Healthcare, Research, Value Propositions.
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I’ll stay with the same theme here for a minute…

I found this one page graphic in the back of Newsweek (6/22/09) which caught my eye.  It was titled “Can You Cheat Death”.  It had some interesting facts from Livingto100.com, Archives of Internal Medicine, PLOS Medicine, and the Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine.

  • Life expectancy for the average American man = 75.2 years (80.4 for a woman).
  • Positive impacts:
    • +10 years if you have a blood relative who has lived to be 95 or older
    • +5 years if you regularly play puzzles like Scrabble or Sudoku
    • +5 years if you’re a married man
    • +5 years if you take 81mg of aspirin a day
    • +3 years if you eat 5 daily servings of fruits / vegetables
    • +2 years if you floss daily
    • +1.7 years if you go to church regularly
  • Negative impacts:
    • -0.5 years if you drink more than 5 cups of coffee a day
    • -1 year if you get less than 6-8 hours of sleep a night
    • -1 year if you have a family history of diabetes
    • -2.5 years if you don’t wear sunscreen and are outside a lot
    • -5 years if you are slowly putting on weight
    • -5 years if you regularly feel stressed out
    • -5 years if you eat red meat more than 2x per week
    • -5 years if you have less than 12 years of education
    • -7 years if you engage in unprotected sex with multiple partners
    • -15 years if you smoke
    • -15 years if you use IV drugs

Obviously, these are only average so you’re not doomed, but I view them as reasonable indicators of how you might influence your length of life.

One Cigarette vs. 11 Minutes of Life July 5, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Healthcare, Marketing / Communications.
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So, if smoking a cigarette knocks 11 minutes off of your life, you would think that would capture people’s attention.  Or would you?  Given the framework of hyperbolic discounting, what is the value we put on that 11 minutes of life.  If I’m young, I see that as a very distant value with a lot of things that could happen between now and then.  The “benefit” of smoking the one cigarette is very real and immediate.  (I’ve never been a smoker, but I assume there is an enjoyment.)

It’s not very different from eating.  The extra spoonful of sugar in my coffee can (over the course of a year) add a pound and over the course of a decade add 10 pounds…BUT can I really make that tradeoff.

This is one of the fundamental challenges in healthcare especially for asymptomatic diseases where there aren’t regularly experienced symptoms – e.g., high cholesterol.

Regarding House Bill 458 (MO) On PBMs July 1, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in General Thoughts, Healthcare, PBM / Pharmacy, Politics, Value Propositions.
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To Whom It May Concern:

You should be embarrassed to produce this bill. It’s obviously based on a one-sided view of the world regarding Pharmacy Benefit Managers which is generated by sensationalist journalists, jilted employees, independent pharmacists who have lost marketshare to chain drugstores, and pharma manufacturers who have seen their marketshare decline. This type of legislation will only serve to drive up healthcare costs and is exactly the reason why a government run plan won’t work in this country. They’ll focus on lobbyist interests and not the true interests of the consumer.

Let’s go point by point through your legislation and point out some flaws – (see bill here)

1 – Why would a PBM have to tell a consumer what they pay the pharmacy? That’s like Best Buy being required to tell the consumer what they pay for a TV. Most PBMs and/or pharmacies often print on the receipt what the consumer’s payor (employer, managed care company) paid for the drug (i.e., your insurance saved you $100).

2 – Why is the government telling businesses how to do their job? As an HR manager, if I can get a better discount for my employees on their prescription drugs by limiting the pharmacy network, why shouldn’t I have that option. We have preferred vendors in most companies. Why shouldn’t that be true in pharmacy? There are ~60,000 pharmacies in the US which is more than enough.

3 – Again, why is the government interfering in pharmacy law and telling me (the consumer) what I can or can’t do? Why can’t I move my prescription from one pharmacy to another based on discount, convenience, service, or other issues? All you are doing is creating a consumer burden and physician burden with no benefit to anyone.

4 – Now you want to take away my ability to manage drug coverage. There are plenty of circumstances where limiting or denying coverage makes sense due to inappropriate utilization, availability of lower cost options, abuse, and other issues.

5 – I’m completely confused here. You want to tell the insurance companies that they can’t increase the percentage of costs that the member pays (which is really a benefit design issue for the employer) unless the drug prices go up.

6 – This topic has been discussed a lot around switching medications. Of course, the communications should be clear. The patient should understand their choices. They physician should be in the loop (which they are since they have to write the new prescription). You hopefully realize that these are done to lower healthcare costs AND that physicians neither discuss costs with patients (generally) nor do they believe it’s their job to do this.

7 – Do you really believe that the dispensing physician who is focused on caring for their patients has the time to keep up with all the medical literature that a Pharmacy & Therapeutics (P&T) Committee reviews in determining protocols around step therapy? Look at the research…it shows that it takes 17 years for evidence-based standards to become standard practice. I personally don’t want to rely on my individual physician (who does a damn good job) to understand all the latest literature (w/o an EMR). And, I would hope no MD would willingly write an Rx that causes harm. All step therapy programs offer a prior authorization override to the MD and the PBM systems look for drug-drug and other types of interactions.

So, I guess the question is why are you (the legislation) trying to force me (the consumer) to have more administrative headaches, higher costs, and be treated with outdated protocols? And, at the same time, you’re going to force my employer to have higher costs and likely have to stop offering healthcare. And, you’re going to put more administrative burden on my physician who is already overworked and potentially underpaid.

Oh, wait, I get it…If you make the existing companies unable to run their business and unable to use evidence-based standards to lower costs then a government run experiment in socialized medicine will look much better. I hope that the Obama camp recognizes you for your hard work in advocating for them.

So Much Confusion Over Generics June 27, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Healthcare, PBM / Pharmacy, Research.
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In reading the article about generic drugs and the subsequent comments, I am amazed at how much mis-information and confusion exists.

Let’s start with a few facts:

  • Generics are approved by the FDA and have to have the same manufacturing standards.
  • Generics receive a rating (e.g., A-B) and are chemically equivalent to the brand drug upon whose patent they are based.
  • Chemically equivalent drugs have the same active ingredients but different inactive ingredients.
  • Generics cost less since there is no research and no sales and marketing activity to support.
  • A high percentage of generic drugs are made by the brand drug manufacturers.
  • Consumers save money on generics.  Pharmacies and PBMs make money on generics.  Plan sponsors (i.e., employers) save money on generics.  Everybody wins!
  • The variance in active ingredients is no different on generics than it is on brands.

There is definitely plenty of misinformation out there.  I would suggest sticking with sites like the FDA’s site on what’s real.

As the study by Prescription Solutions (United Healthcare) shows, there is confusion in the market.

  • Nearly 1/3rd of Americans don’t know or believe that generics are identical to brand drugs.  (They’re not identical, but the active ingredients are.  I would have asked the question differently.)
  • 2/3rds of respondents didn’t know that generics typically cost 50-70% less than brands.  (That surprises me.)

Jacqueline Kosecoff, Ph.D., chief executive officer of Prescription Solutions, said, “Using generics helps make health care more affordable without compromising results. Many Americans erroneously believe that the most expensive drug is always the most effective drug, so by helping to change perceptions, we can help people save money and still get the best treatment available.”

New CMO – Dr. Jan Berger June 23, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Healthcare, Leadership, PBM / Pharmacy, Silverlink.
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I’ve had the chance to read Dr. Berger’s research over the years when she was at CVS Caremark. After having a chance to spend some time with her on a few topics, I am very excited that she is coming on board at Silverlink Communications as our Chief Medical Officer.

From the press release:

DR. JAN BERGER JOINS SILVERLINK AS CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER

June 23, 2009

Burlington, MA – Silverlink Communications® Inc., the leader in healthcare consumer communications, today announced that Dr. Jan Berger, former Senior Vice President and Chief Clinical Officer for CVS Caremark, joins Silverlink as Chief Medical Officer. In her role, Dr. Berger will focus on setting the company’s overall vision and strategy for population health and clinical communications programs within the managed care, population health, and pharmacy benefit management space.

Dr. Berger brings more than 25 years of business and clinical expertise in healthcare, including more than 15 years as a medical director at both a health plan and a major regional hospital. She is actively involved in quality initiatives, participating in numerous committees for National Committee for Quality Assurance (NCQA); medication safety, participating in steering committees at National Quality Forum (NQF); and population health management through her Executive Board position at DMAA. She also serves on several influential editorial and healthcare company boards, including Editor in Chief of American Journal of Pharmacy Benefit. Her expertise expands Silverlink’s focus in population health and clinical outreach – specifically related to engaging and connecting with healthcare consumers in a variety of lifestyle management, disease management and preventive health activities.

“Jan is clearly one of the leading innovators in healthcare, with tremendous clinical acumen and an ongoing track record of business execution in programs that drive down healthcare costs and improve health outcomes,” said Stan Nowak, Silverlink’s co-founder and CEO. “We are extremely proud to have her join our executive team at a time when behavior change is critical to our national healthcare reform process.”

“Silverlink is at the forefront of using communications and analytics as strategic assets to help consumers make more effective healthcare decisions,” said Dr. Jan Berger. “With the consumer at the center of our healthcare cost equation, we have the opportunity to improve the health of our country and eliminate hundreds of billions of dollars that relate to preventable conditions. This is a complex but solvable problem and I’m passionate to be part of a team that is already making an impact.”

Gov’t Reduce HC Costs: Rx Decisions Say No June 23, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Blogroll, Healthcare, Leadership, PBM / Pharmacy, Politics, Value Propositions.
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I have nothing against the pharmaceutical companies.  We need medications.  Development of medications costs money.  There are lots of failures to find one that works.  They deserve to make money.

That being said…they are smart and apparently the administration is inappropriately (IMHO) paying attention to what they suggest is right.

  • For Medicare PDP, the plans can no longer require the member to pay more when they choose a brand drug which is available as a generic.  WHY NOT?  It’s the same drug.  There may be a few exceptions called Narrow Therapeutic Index (NTI) drugs, but just make them exceptions.  This was a bad decision which will cost us taxpayers money.  (See prior posts – Potentially Ridiculous Decision and Uproar Over “Reference-Based”…)
  • Now, they jump on the savings that are offered for members who hit the “donut hole” and stay on the brand medication.  Why not just require MDs to give out samples?  Of course this will effect behavior and drive brand utilization.  Pharma is not stupid.  This is another decision which will cost us taxpayers money.

On the one decision where they go against pharma – drug reimportation, they make a bad decision.  Why import drugs?  Why not implement a therapeutic MAC (maximum allowable cost)?  This will definitely impact drug costs AND generic drugs (which make up almost 70% of the claims filled) are cheaper in the US.

This is the government that we want to manage the costs of our healthcare system when they can’t even make the logical decisions that anyone close the business could make.  Come on!

[IMHO = In My Humble Opinion]

Sold to Pharma

Could / Should Healthcare Follow The Car Dealer June 16, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Consumerism, General Thoughts, Healthcare, Politics.
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Healthcare is one of the few industries where more supply equals more demand.  (Maybe the only one.)

So, as we look at the healthcare shortage of PCPs, RN, and RPhs, should there be more discussion of closing locations?  Should we pursue the tact of the car manufacturers in closing dealerships to have less locations?  This would fly in the face of the MinuteClinic type of strategy.

Or, I guess the better question is whether there are certain points in the process where more access points are needed, but there are other points in the process where less access points are needed.  For example, do we really need 6x,000 retail pharmacies in the US.  Certainly, in some urban and suburban locations where the average person passes more than 3 pharmacies to get to the one they use, the answer is no.  In some rural locations, there is no option other than the one pharmacy that is 20 miles away.

Would this change our behavior?  I believe analysis would show that less testing facilities and more difficult access to certain tests would certainly change their use.  Would this address the problem or simply create more services that were being done outside the system (i.e., cash businesses)?

I don’t know the answer, but I haven’t heard anyone talking about what seems like a logical discussion.

What Would A Public Healthcare Company Give Us? June 14, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Healthcare, PBM / Pharmacy, Politics.
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I’ll admit upfront that I’m well behind in all my policy reading, but as a citizen and someone who works in healthcare, I have to wonder why this makes sense.

  1. Is it to lower administrative costs as Kathleen Sebelius said on TV this morning?  Since they only represent ~10% of the total healthcare costs, that’s not going to make a big difference.
  2. Is it to provide coverage for the uninsured?  This seems like a fundamentally good cause but how is that population defined.  Why can’t that happen in the existing system with the right incentives / mandates?
  3. Is it to provide competition for the current insurers?  This seems like a bad path.  Government competing with industry…will the playing field be even?
  4. Is it to provide a government subsidy to those that can’t be profitably insured?  Again…this is probably in the social interest of the country.  Can it be done w/o simply overspending?
  5. Is it to drive a long term investment in preventative care?  Now, this seems like an interesting perspective.  We know one of the issues with long-term investments in patient care is that members churn.  If I invest today in a member that I won’t have, I don’t get my money back.

I think my point here is that a public system (IMHO – In My Humble Opinion) isn’t the right question.  We have systemic challenges around incentives, payment structure, long-term care, supply and demand, health literacy, etc. that have to be addressed.

From what I’ve seen in Medicare Part D (PDP), I have no faith that a public system would manage trend.  They won’t even push people to chemically equivalent generics.  They blindly pursue re-importation.  They don’t have a very limited formulary.  They don’t have aggressive utilization management programs (e.g., step therapy).

Someone needs to set an aggressive goal of keeping trend to 0% for the next decade and then work toward that.

New Clinical Webinars – HEDIS, Adherence, Engagement June 8, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Consumerism, Events, Healthcare, Managed Care, Marketing / Communications, Methodology, PBM / Pharmacy, Research, Silverlink.
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In June, we are offering three complimentary webinars to our clients and prospects on key topics of discussion.

Increasing the Effectiveness of Population Health Program Engagement
June 16th | 1:00 PM ET

Getting consumers to take charge of their healthcare behaviors and choices is critical to controlling costs and improving outcomes. Successfully welcoming and engaging consumers in DM and health management programs can be the toughest road for health plans and population health organizations. Strategies that motivate participatory engagement are key – but it takes more than a friendly voice and the right script.

Join Silverlink for a complimentary webinar where we will discuss the challenges of moving health behaviors and effective strategies organizations can implement to get ahead of the behavior change curve.

In addition, learn how to:

  • Leverage tailored messaging to drive high engagement rates
  • Enable continued engagement over time
  • Maximize buy-in and acceptance of health coaching
  • Combine multichannel approaches to elicit engagement and re-engagement
  • Optimize engagement campaigns through predictive analytics to drive results

Drive Positive Health Behaviors and Improve HEDIS Results

June 23rd | 1:00 PM ET

Whether your focus is on the HEDIS measures for women’s health, the diabetes metrics or a broad range of effectiveness of care measures, Silverlink can design communications strategies that increase your reach, motivate member action and improve HEDIS results.

With the backdrop of the economic slowdown, communicating with members about the importance of key preventive screenings is more critical than ever. Explore the many routes to break through health prevention challenges by tailoring communications interventions that work for your populations.

Join Silverlink for a complimentary webinar where we will present the results and lessons learned over several years in supporting HEDIS screenings including a recent campaign aimed at reducing health disparirities in African American and Hispanic populations related to colorectal cancer screenings.

In addition, learn how to:

  • Use a flexible framework that supports national teams in delivering effective outreach in local markets
  • Drive performance on high-profile HEDIS measures where plan performance has hit a plateau
  • Segment your membership to deliver highly personal messages using multiple levers
  • Design and target messages to help reduce health disparities
  • Combine multiple messages to support members with more than one gap
  • Leverage multichannel campaigns to maximize reach and action

Rethinking Medication Adherence

June 30th | 1:00 PM ET

More than 50% of consumers become nonadherent around their maintenance medications within the first 12 months of therapy. And, today’s economy is putting even more pressure on people to make economic tradeoffs that threaten their health. Several studies have shown that more people are skipping doses or not refilling medications. Non-adherence leads to $177B in direct and indirect costs to the healthcare system per year.

Silverlink provides a comprehensive suite of communications services to drive medication adherence from targeting and messaging to multi-channel campaign management and execution. Join Silverlink where we will discuss some of the common myths around and key strategies related to medication adherence.

In addition, you will learn about:

  • Critical success factors in designing adherence solutions
  • Important conditions to focus on for adherence
  • Success metrics and key measurements
  • Comprehensive solutions for all phases of the patient’s therapy from initiation through long term maintenance

Expanding the Role of the Clinic June 8, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Books / Articles, Consumerism, Healthcare, Value Propositions.
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I think the fact that Walgreen’s and CVS Caremark are expanding the role that the clinics can play in healthcare is a positive thing.  There will be lots of debates about how much can be handled at the clinics versus the physician’s office, but I think the key point should be that today’s model doesn’t work.  Chronic diseases are not managed.  We provide sick care not well care.

Launched over the last four years to care for such simple ailments as ear and sinus infections, strep throat or pinkeye, retail clinic operators now are training nurses to do specialized injections for such chronic conditions as osteoporosis and asthma.

In addition, they are offering treatments for advanced skin conditions that include removal of warts and skin tags or closing minor wounds. Care for minor “sprains and strains” also is being offered at some retailers, and pilot projects are underway for breathing treatments and special infusions of drugs derived from biotechnology.

We need to figure out how to lower the costs, make the system more accessible, get patients engaged, and drive people to preventative care.  I don’t know if the clinics can do this, but if they can, we should embrace them.  I think both companies are very well positioned to drive change with their breadth of services.  They touch the consumer on a regular basis and have the ability to use data, technology, and localized care to engage patients.

Should MDs Make Less Since Work Is Fulfilling? June 6, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Blogroll, Healthcare, Value Propositions.
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It’s an interesting question, and one I had never thought about.  But, this is how I would summarize Penelope Trunk’s post.

Why do doctors need to make so much money? The non-financial rewards for being a doctor are larger than almost any other profession. Except teaching.

Can’t I have a good job that I like; make a difference in society; AND make a lot of money.  Is that too much to ask?

I guess it’s like saying why can’t I balance work and family AND make a lot of money.  It can happen, but it’s rare and hard. 

I’m not sure I buy her hypothesis about lowering standards to create more MDs which would drive down costs, but it’s an interesting perspective.

Facts, Ideas, and Thought Provoking Discussions June 3, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Healthcare.
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We had our client event a few weeks ago (and I am finally digging out). Additionally, I had the privilege to attend one of our client’s big internal events last week. They both gave me lots to think about. I am grouping them all together here to share.

  • Payors are becoming more interested in BPO (business process outsourcing) today. (Is that an economic reality or a competitive need?) Disease Mgmt is the exception here as plans are moving it back in-house.
  • Even thought over 30% of payors have more than 4 backend systems, some of them are looking for new claims systems for their individual business.
  • Marketing is the #1 investment area for 2009 (and hasn’t been in the top 10 for the past decade).
  • One plan out there has 72 different business intelligence tools they are using.
  • 67% of members haven’t been contacted by their plan in the past 18 months. (Is that good or bad?)
  • 80% of members get information from general healthcare sites not the health plan website.
  • Payors are starting to get into (or investigate) the social media world.
  • Reducing 3 risk factors (e.g., smoking) would reduce 80% of diabetes and 40% of cancers.
  • Safeway has kept their healthcare costs flat for 4 years by using incentives.
  • Over 80% of Americans are on 3-tier plans.
  • Only 10% of MDs aware of the cost of a drug to the patient…
    • And most think it’s the RPh’s job to address this
    • But 70% of patients don’t know the cost before it’s adjudicated
    • And 60% of patients w/o coverage don’t talk to MDs about cost
  • Just following guidelines would improve care and costs dramatically (e.g., hypertension by 25%)
  • Starting patients on generics increases their likelihood of reaching an MPR > 80%
  • For the same location, Marriott makes 8% more revenue than competitors based on personalization and use of data
  • The Royal Bank of Canada is beginning to use the value of your social network in determining things like your interest rate (e.g., John has a high net worth cousin that we want to retain).
  • Your IQ score plus your credit score can explain 95% of your success as an employee
  • At NetFlix, they found that people like their recommendations better than the movies people chose themselves
  • High performing companies are 5x more likely to consider analytics a key part of their strategy
  • One CEO is so focused on analytics that they talk about firing people for not using a control group.
  • Analysis is not an ideal but a truism. You have to both have the data and the intelligence to interpret it.
  • Healthcare is just realizing that consumers can be “convinced” to use specific products or services.
    • Behavorial economics (fear) versus inspiration (love).
  • There are more fast food restaurants in states with higher obesity – vicious cycle.
  • You have to engage consumers on their terms.
  • Do consumers really know what they want? If you ask them about receiving health care communications, what would they say? Can you honor those preferences? When do you override them?
  • Is communications and member insights really the only way to differentiate versus competition?
  • Your brain takes in more information than it can process…this is why sleep, exercise, relaxation, etc. is necessary for your brain to process all of it. (If true, do you forget more if you don’t do those things?)
  • You have to have both the Hedgehog (people that dig deep on data) and the Fox (people that connect the dots) to be successful. (Good to Great)
  • Personalization and pro-active communications are key.
  • 65% of healthcare products will be personalized in the next 5 years. (What are you doing to get there?)
  • BWM offers a great example of customization:
    • You could name your mini-Cooper
    • Your personalized key fob would activate billboards that showed a personal message (Hi Herbie!)
  • Interesting discussion on using automated member satisfaction solutions versus live agents. Do you get different outcomes? Which is more accurate?
  • Do members want to be “treated like a friend”? Wouldn’t some view this as too intrusive / presumptive?
  • Can you really motivate your employees if you have no personal relationship with them? I was surprised to hear some people say yes.
  • The most difficult thing is to stop doing what we’ve been doing.
  • Do you want to be part of a corporation or a movement?
  • 65% of employees are looking for another job (even in today’s economy).
  • 80% of employees don’t look forward to Monday (and heart attacks and strokes are higher on Monday mornings).
  • 25% of big company CEOs would meet the clinical guidelines to be defined as a psychopath.

Hopefully, like me, these give you a few things to think about and chew on.

Retail Clinics Scarce in Poorer Areas June 2, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Healthcare, Politics, Research.
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Just like there are less grocery stores in poorer areas, less retail clinics are being built in those areas.  This systemic challenge makes health changes hard to overcome.  From USA Today (5/27/09):

Walk-in retail clinics in grocery and drugstore chains were designed primarily for convenience but also can help the uninsured find health care, proponents say. But a new study suggests most retail clinics aren’t in the poorest neighborhoods — they are in more affluent areas already well-served by other medical resources. A study by University of Pennsylvania researchers in Monday’s Archives of Internal Medicine mapped 930 retail clinics operating last year, then used U.S. Census data to describe the income and racial makeup of the neighborhoods. Only 123 clinics were located in areas defined by the federal government as medically underserved. Census tracts with clinics had lower percentages of black and Hispanic residents, lower rates of poverty, higher rates of home ownership and higher median incomes.

Top Wealth Centers June 2, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in General Thoughts, Healthcare, Research.
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Since we know health disparities exist and we know (for example) that higher income and higher educated people are more likely to use generics, I think it’s important to understand some of the ways areas are evaluated and ranked by 3rd parties on their “wealth”.

Reading the St. Louis Business Journal last week, they showed the IL and MO cities and how they ranked.  The metrics were interesting:

  • Median household income
  • Households with incomes above $200K
  • Median home value
  • Households with 4+ vehicles (really?)
  • Adults with bachelors degrees

McLean, VA was the top ranked city:

  • $156,292 median household income (vs. $50,007 nationally)
  • 36% of households have an income above $200k (vs. 3.7% nationally)
  • 79% of adults hold bachelors degrees (vs. 27% nationally)

Lake Forest, IL was the second ranked city and has 5% of households with an annual income of more than $1.15M and 7.4% of households had 4+ vehicles.

(This analysis that they did was based on US Census Bureau’s 2005-2007 American Community Survey.)

Medco 2009 Drug Trend Report Part 2 May 25, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Healthcare.
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(Continued) Here are my highlights from Medco Health’s 2009 Drug Trend Report:

  • They continue to be very aggressive about discussing David Snow’s blueprint for healthcare reform.
  • They also seem to be very focused on personalized medicine with several documents out there discussing it.  They mention it here along with GINA.
  • They also talk about Prevacid potentially making the Rx-to-OTC switch which we know has recently been approved.

Half of all Americans are under treatment for at least one chronic disease.  For patients initially diagnosed with chronic or complex conditions, drugs are the first choice for medical intervention 88% (131 out of 149) of the time. Care of patients with chronic and complex diseases accounts for 75% of medical costs and 96% of total drug spending in the U.S.  However, about half of all patients abandon their prescribed therapy in the first year of treatment. Indirect costs linked to absenteeism, short- and long-term disability, and presenteeism (i.e., present at work but less than fully productive) can exceed associated direct healthcare costs by two to three times—making even more critical the rigorous management of these patients and tighter adherence to ongoing care.


Major contributors to these numbers include the epidemic of obesity, the persistence of tobacco and substance abuse, and physical inactivity. As the average age of our population rises, without a paradigm shift that changes the status quo, it is expected that the number of individuals with chronic disease will similarly increase (see figure below). – for original sources go to page 85 in the document)

Medco Chronic Disease Growth

  • I was a little surprised that it wasn’t until page 97 that they showed results from the Medco Therapeutic Resource Centers (TRCs).

Medco TRC Outcomes

Alright, after a few crashes of the blog entry, that wraps it up…one more drug trend report to go.

Medco 2009 Drug Trend Report May 25, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Books / Articles, Consumerism, Healthcare, PBM / Pharmacy, Research.
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Here are my highlights from Medco Health’s 2009 Drug Trend Report:

  • Overall trend was 3.3%.  (1.3% excluding specialty drugs.)
  • Specialty trend was 15.8%.
  • Their generic fill rate was 64.1%.
  • Interestingly, they broke out trend to show that clients with over 40% mail use had a trend of -0.7% while those with less than 40% had a trend of 5.8%.
  • I do like the generic distribution chart below although it is for 2008 Q4 while their 64.1% number is for the average of 2008.

Medco GFR Distribution

  • They point out that utilization growth was negative 1.1% last year which was the first time in a decade.  What I was surprised at is that they didn’t “blame” the economy for this.  Most surveys I have seen say or imply that people are taking less medications because of the increasing cost burden while their overall wealth is decreasing.
  • Medicare costs increased 6.8% for their PDP (prescription drug plans).

Medco Medicare Spending 2009 Rpt

  • I think it’s interesting in helping companies focus their management efforts when they project that “in the next 3 years more than 85% of drug trend will be driven by drugs in six categories: cardiovascular, endocrine/
    diabetes, central nervous system, musculoskeletal/rheumatology, respiratory, and oncology”.
  • In a brief section about the unwired state of healthcare, they share some scary statistics:
    • A review involving the medical records of 41 million Medicare patients identified $8.8 billion in error-associated costs and 238,837 preventable deaths. Moreover, a large subset of these errors are medication errors.
    • An estimated 1.5 million preventable serious medication errors occur each year, with $217 billion (2006 dollars) in associated costs.
  • Since people are always asking for quantifiable value around adherence, I liked the chart below which showed the survival rates over years based on adherence vs. non-adherence.

Medco Statin Survival Rates by Adherence

  • They introduce a new metric – Generic Opportunity Score (GOS).  It takes into account both chemical and therapeutic opportunities for generics to be used.
  • They also provide some details on a brand-to-generic $0 copay waiver program which had a 14% success rate.  That’s pretty good from what I have seen.
  • Here is a breakout of the specialty pharmacy categories:

Medco Specialty 2009

  • Now, where they do credit the economy is with improving generic fill rate, mail order utilization, and client’s use of trend management programs.
  • They show trend by age group with the lower age groups growing faster.  They also showed a nice graph of utilization by state.

Medco Geo Distribution 2009

  • Below is their chart on where trend growth in the future is projected to occur (which should tell you where to focus preventative action).

Medco Top Therapy Classes Trend 2009

A Few Medco Updates May 23, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Books / Articles, Healthcare, Marketing / Communications, PBM / Pharmacy, Research.
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First, Medco published their Drug Trend Report for 2009 a few days ago.  I am just starting to read it and will post my comments in the next few days.  [BTW - I am the #1 Google hit if you query "drug trend report".]

Second, they recently posted a video of Mark Spitz talking about Medco’s website and savings money on prescriptions.

Then, they also presented a few new studies at ISPOR this past week which showed:

  • Asthma patients taking a statin were less likely to have a asthma related hospital or ER visit.
  • Patients with MS (multiple sclerosis) were more adherent when using specialty.

I think I’m going to try to learn more about the MS study.  Did it vary by age, gender, plan design, pharmacy type, stage of disease, etc.

Do Consumers Understand Cost of Individual Insurance? May 19, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Consumerism, Healthcare, Managed Care, Marketing / Communications, Research.
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In a study done by Kelton Research on behalf of eHealthinsurance.com, I found a few interesting data points:

  • 65% of people don’t think they could afford health insurance for more than 6 months if they lost their job.  (Since most Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck, that shouldn’t be surprising.)
  • Only 26% knew that individual health insurance is cheaper than COBRA although COBRA can be a lot less expensive with the Obama subsidiary.
  • 31% think that they would be denied coverage by another plan versus the actual denial rate which is closer to 11%.
  • To stay covered, only about 50% would be willing to spend less on cell phones or cable TV.
  • Only 40% would be willing to pay more than $200/ month.

CareScientific: MythBusters May 16, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Books / Articles, Business Tools, Healthcare, Research, Value Propositions.
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A few former co-workers and friends of mine (Brenda Motheral and Steve Melnick) have formed a new company called CareScientific.  This is a follow-up to Brenda’s paper a few months ago on Disease Management.  You can now go to their site and see more about what they are doing:

  • Custom program evaluation
  • Provide a proprietary algorithm for selecting cost-effective patients for intervention

They also offer a Disease Management (DM) plausability and VBID plausability calculator to help you assess whether the saving you need are rational expectations.

I had a chance to see them officially launch this a few months ago at a conference.  Here were a few of my notes and some of their slides from the event:

  • To reduce healthcare costs, you can look at pricing, disease management, and utilization management.  If you’re looking at DM, you need to focus on outcomes from both a quality and an ROI perspective.
  • The early models for DM were much more multi-disciplinary.
  • In a recent care coordination project, only 1 in 15 people showed a reduction in hospitalization…none showed an ROI.
  • Hewitt says that less than 40% of plan sponsors are satisfied with DM.
  • In 20 CMS studies, not one has shown an improvement in Rx adherence.
  • Most DM savings are simply regression to the mean.
  • Key things to focus on:
    • Behaviors that save money
    • Improving collaboration – where it matters
    • Rigorous evaluation
    • Determine savings plausability
  • There are 3 concentric circles of focus.  At the middle is cost savings then cost-effective and then clinically appropriate.  Most programs are clinically appropriate, but only 20% show cost savings.

Dependent Eligibility Audits – a final frontier? May 14, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Healthcare.
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A colleague recently forwarded a local article on employers and plan sponsors seeking alternative avenues for cost savings – tackling dependent eligibility audits to generate plan savings.

And the trend is catching on as benefits consultant groups like Mercer, Watson Wyatt, Hewitt can attest and as Mercer recently shared that it anticipates a doubling in its private sector dependent audit business since 2008. Similarly, if one were to look at the number of state and municipal government groups looking to audit their employees this year over last, it has at least doubled.

So why are dependent audits largely considered the final frontier and why are more employers just doing audits now? Well, as all of us who read the various health care blogs and are in the business know, cost-shifting is approaching its limits– employers have only so much latitude remaining with their employees relative to increased member responsibilities with deductibles and co-insurance without cutting benefits (even though many are forced to cut regardless in this economy).

Furthermore, creative cost-saving plan design options are pretty much exhausted (though we’re seeing some innovations in pockets). So what’s left if the employer is still to offer employees the more traditional health care coverage? Some estimate that anywhere from 3 – 20% of dependents are ineligible for health coverage (most say 3-8%). Employers are taking on these audits as a means to identify dependents who clearly should not be enrolled – divorced spouses, deceased spouses (yes, they are still enrolled), older children, boyfriends – you get the idea. At anywhere from $4,700 to $12,000 total average premium PMPY (excluding any medical costs on top of premiums) there are meaningful dollars to be saved that can be the difference between continuing, trimming or altogether dropping employer-sponsored health benefits. Whether you be large or small employer group, the cost savings can be significant – well north of $1mm for many groups. So the ROI is clear and delineating who is eligible, or not, should be a relatively straightforward proposition, right?

Well, not so fast. Getting employees to comply with audits as well as send in all the necessary documentation (e.g. marriage certificates, adoption paperwork, etc.) can be tedious and cumbersome for the employer. But despite the pain of an audit for both employee and employer, there is sufficient ‘green’ in those ineligibles that employers, small and large, are launching eligibility audits.

Once an employer is determined that an audit is necessary what are the keys to a successful audit? Fundamental program design and seamless execution are critical because as a few as one irate employee can brew a firestorm in employee relations. Here are the fundamentals…

  1. Education and communication
  2. Data analytics to find higher-risk employees
  3. Access to Information and resources during the audit
  4. Ease of document submission
  5. Verification and results

So where to begin? Granted each employee population is different so flexible communication and engagement tactics should reflect this, but the evidence behind dependent eligibility audits is clear so you need to think now on how to execute and execute quickly before open enrollment season is upon us. Here at Silverlink, we are offer comprehensive communication solutions that include multi-channel outreach, inbound solutions, web tools, data management, analytics and comprehensive program management so clients can optimize their outreach goals and realize substantial cost savings so that there are no surprises during open enrollment.

Lastly, in some ways the spike in dependent eligibility audits seems too little too late for plan sponsors and it is bewildering why this is only coming onto the radar now with some gusto when eligibility verification should be a fundamental part of enrollment, shouldn’t it?

This posting was written by Cassandra Price, Payor Operations Subject Matter Expert for Silverlink Communications. Cassie has held leadership positions in managed care organizations and healthcare IT solution providers in strategic product management and client services including UnitedHealth Group, McKesson Health Solutions and Concentra, Inc.. Her healthcare background also includes private equity/M&A, care management software solution design, CRM design and implementation and managed care analytics and outcomes research.

Cassie’s work at Silverlink Communications focuses on designing multi-channel communication solutions for managed care organizations and self-insured employers where driving operational efficiencies and cost-savings are critical. Solutions areas include coordination of benefits programs, enrollment & eligibility campaigns, broker communication programs, member and provider call center call obviation solutions, and various other member, provider and employer communication programs. Cassie has her MBA in finance from Babson and an A.B. in History from Hamilton College.


 

Why Does WSJ Villanize CVS Caremark? May 13, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Blogroll, Books / Articles, Consumerism, Healthcare, Managed Care, Marketing / Communications, PBM / Pharmacy, Value Propositions.
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I was so annoyed when I read the WSJ this morning about CVS Caremark charging more for members that go outside the CVS store or mail order.  Come on guys.  This is a basic tiered network design.  It’s not unlike tiered formularies or preferred drug lists.

First, it’s a plan design that was created and offered to clients.  Some clients choose it.  That’s not CVS Caremark’s issue.  Anyone could do this and offer it.

Second, what’s different between this an mandatory mail or retail buy-up.  If you choose a higher cost location, you have to pay more.  You’re getting the same drug at a higher cost facility.

What frustrates me the most here is that we will never reform healthcare and drive out costs if people want to have their cake and eat it too.  You think you can have total flexibility and manage costs.  We have to make some hard decisions and push people to drugs, locations, treatments, etc. that offer similar quality at a lower cost.  That’s not going to be easy.

cake

Walgreens 2009 Trend Report May 9, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Healthcare.
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I must admit that I have been reading these reports by Walgreens for less time than those by Express Scripts, Medco, and CVS Caremark so there were a few more questions that jumped out in my mind here. From the beginning, one thing that I noticed was that Michael Nameth signed the introductory letter. I only pull that out to wonder how that compared to Express Scripts and CVS Caremark (which are the other two 2009 reports currently available).

  • The Express Scripts report was signed by George Paz (CEO).
  • The CVS Caremark report doesn’t have an opening letter.

Their trend numbers were:

  • 5.6% including specialty
  • 4.1% without specialty

They rolled out a new 90-day program called Walgreens90 which matches the Maintenance Choice program from CVS Caremark.

  • Member pay the same at mail or Walgreens store for 90-day Rx.
  • Same cost to the payor at either channel.

A semantical issue for me was that they call their program “step care therapy” versus the rest of the industry that calls it “step therapy”. Are they implying a level of care in the intervention that is different from others?

In the opening section, they talk about some general data which I found interesting:

  • 1 in 7 Americans went without a prescription in 2007 because of cost related concerns
  • 1 in 10 working age adults with private insurance also went without a prescription

    (Both stats from study by the Center for Studying Health System Change)

Their PMPY costs were $912 including specialty. $812 excluding specialty.

78.1% of their members take a prescription medication.

Their population had 13.6 Rxs PMPY.

Members aged 60 years and older used 2.6x as many Rxs as the younger members.

I was surprised that they claim that a 1% increase in generic fill rate produces a 2% savings for their clients. This is double what CVS Caremark claims. I always thought it was between 0.75% and 1.5%. Is their pricing different or is there something else that generates this increased savings per percentage?

The average annual member cost was $178.40 (PMPY).

They say the average ingredient cost was $146 for a brand and $26 for a generic. The brand price seems really high to me.

Their generic fill rate was 65.6%.

Members paid 16.6% of brand drug costs and 29.8% of generic drug costs (or 19.6% overall).

They say that 37.4% of all their prescriptions were filled as 90-day Rxs (retail or mail), but they lost me when they broke it down.

What surprised me (and maybe it shouldn’t) is that 7.4% of their clients drug spend is on 3 drugs that have easy savings programs associated with them:

  • Lipitor – split the drug or target it for therapeutic substitution with generic Zocor (simvastatin)
  • Prevacid and Nexium – step therapy for generic Prilosec (omeprazole) or move people to Prilosec OTC

Specialty drugs accounted for 0.5% of total Rxs but 10.9% of total spend.

The average specialty drug was $2,032. [for a 30-day supply I assume]

They provide a few case studies, but they point you to www.walgreenshealth.com/casestudies for more information.

One thing that jumped out for me in one of the case studies was their mention of different copays based on whether a member went to an in-network pharmacy. I wonder if (as a retailer) they have a smaller network or actually used a tiered network design. Most plans (that I’m familiar with) seem to have all (or the majority) of retail pharmacies in the network.

In their end section on the landscape, they mention new combination drugs. I would be very interested in their opinion on these…should they be covered? Are they a waste of money?

Finally, at the end, I looked at the methodology. A few things caught my eye:

  • They excluded managed care clients. Why? Wouldn’t they be the most aggressive?
  • They excluded Medicare Part D clients. (which is consistent with Express Scripts and CVS Caremark)
  • They excluded clients with a custom formulary. Again, why?

They use a discounted AWP to calculate total cost, but they don’t tell what the discounted rate is.

Express Scripts 2009 Drug Trend Report May 9, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Books / Articles, Consumerism, Healthcare, Marketing / Communications, Methodology, PBM / Pharmacy, Research.
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I always enjoyed being part of the team that put the Drug Trend Report out when I was at Express Scripts from 2001-2006. With that in mind, I do await anxiously to see what new information they will share each year. I will say that the core fundamentals (as always) were very strong in the 2009 report, but I missed not having any client case studies in the document.

They reported drug trend of 1.5% (without specialty) and 3% with specialty.

Specialty drug trend was 15.4%.

Patients paid an average of $12.82 per Rx.

They say that more patients converted to Home Delivery (aka mail order). [I have to check this. My recollection is that mail volume was relatively flat and this would be hard to achieve unless they had more people filling less drugs on average at mail.]

They reported PMPY utilization of 14.32 Rxs.

Their members paid 29% of the generic drug costs; 19.6% of the brand costs; and 22.3% overall for traditional drugs. For specialty drugs, they paid 2.3% (or 20.2% for all drugs including specialty).

They have a section on compliance (which is rapidly becoming a key discussion point in the PBM world). I was a little surprised they didn’t call it adherence which is more common these days. But, they revealed some surprisingly high MPR (medication possession ratio) numbers for antidiabetics, antihypertensives, and lipid-lowering drugs. Considering adherence is where a member has an MPR of greater than 80%, they showed 77%, 83%, and 83% respectively. Since we know that 50% of people (on average) drop therapy within 12-months, this seems improbable on a book-of-business basis. (Maybe I’m just becoming a cynic in my old age.) The only reason I could find to explain this example was that this was not based on new starts (i.e., NRxs) unless they came in the first quarter. Therefore, there might be some selection bias in that they are taking MPR on people that started the year on the medication and may therefore have been people who were more likely to be adherent. I would rather see this done on a rolling 12-month basis.

As I often use, they define waste in the system and give you a potential GFR (generic fill rate) goal for the top therapy classes.

ESI Estimated Savings GFR 2009

Their analysis shows that 55% of the costs for specialty drugs were billed through the medical benefit rather than the pharmacy benefit.

55% of their members are in plans with at least one step therapy module.

They talk about a few studies they have published showing that targeted and framed messages are more effective than general messages. And, that those messages are more effective with mail order users than people at retail.

Again, there might be some selection bias here as people at Home Delivery may simply be more active in managing their healthcare. The other question I have had for a few of my friends there has been whether we are comparing apples-to-apples. Since I ran a few of the programs before I left, I know we did a lot more interventions (web, inbound IVR, outbound calls, messaging on the invoice, letters, POS rejects) than we did for retail (letters and outbound IVR). If they’ve adjusted for that, than this is clear. If not, I would want to see that adjustment made.

As anyone who reads the blog knows, I am a big supporter of the theory behind their Consumerology story. I think Larry Zarin and Bob Nease have done a great job putting together their advisory board, creating case studies, and using behavioral economics. I always talk with our clients about these theories, and our analytics team is constantly helping clients define test plans that use these.

  • Social comparison
  • Hyperbolic discounting
  • Loss aversion

In comparing adherence at retail and mail, one thing that came into my mind was whether a driver of better adherence was a longer time window to refill. Typically, you have a refill-too-soon (RTS) edit in place until 2/3rds of the medication has been used (based on days supply dispensed from dispense date). At retail, that means you have about 10 days. At mail, that means you have about 30 days (less the 7 days for shipping). Does that make a difference?

I was also surprised under the methodology section that they now include rebates in calculating costs. It’s a quick one-line comment but how did that effect trend or other metrics here…and if so, how significantly?

As always, I love the therapy class reviews in the back that give you great numbers like:

  • Cost PMPY
  • # Rxs PMPY
  • Prevalence of Use
  • Average Cost / Rx
  • # Rxs / User / Year

Have a Swine Flu Party? May 7, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Books / Articles, Events, Healthcare, Value Propositions.
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dancing-pig

I must admit that it never even crossed my mind, and I don’t plan on running out to get infected.  But, I find the debate and discussion very interesting.

In case you have missed it, the NYTimes had an article today about this.  The key concept in question is whether getting the disease today with a potentially milder strain will prevent you from a more dangerous strain which could come later.

“I think it’s totally nuts,” Dr. Moscona said. “I can’t believe people are really thinking of doing it. I understand the thinking, but I just fear we don’t know enough about how this virus would react in every individual. This is like the Middle Ages, when people deliberately infected themselves with smallpox. It’s vigilante vaccination — you know, taking immunity into your own hands.”

The Personalization of Health Care May 7, 2009

Posted by George Van Antwerp in Consumerism, General Thoughts, Healthcare.
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With genomics and other tools, it seems possible that we could one day see completely personalized health care.  Of course, the immediate reaction will be won’t this mess up risk pools.  [I am sure there is someone smarter than me that will figure out how to make that piece work.]

What I see is the following:

  • Understanding personality types would allow patients to be matched to providers.
  • Genetic testing would allow for better predictive models on what individuals with need in terms of coverage.
  • Genetic testing will allow for the creation of personalized medicine.
  • Better predictive models will allow for better care plans and preventative medicine.
  • More transparency will allow people to make better decisions (e.g., calories displayed at restaurants).
  • Ubiquitous technology will integrate health decision making into everyday processes and tools.
  • Technology will allow companies to develop personalized, targeted communications that are based on patient preferences, historical responses, personality type, and experience to drive healthy behaviors.

Could we eventually get to the point where each of us had an adaptive plan that covered different things as we grew older and constantly optimized our care team or medical neighborhood based on our needs?

Of course, the risk comes when the models are wrong, but if you applied some of the chaos theory logic to a traditional modeling strategy and the current underwriting programs, who knows?

Not something for the next few years, but something I was noodling on the other day.