Top Predications for Healthcare from Columbia Business School

1. Multi-national pharmaceutical and medical technology companies will increase their investments in emerging markets, notably China and India, to access cost effective human capital and a growing middle class of consumers better able to afford more advanced medical products. [Seems pretty logical. Global expansion. I expect pharma expansion will be much easier than technology expansion although SaaS (Software as a Service) my make it easier. I don’t see some of the “cool” Health 2.0 tools gaining traction and becoming viable businesses just because of broader reach.]
   

    

2. Information technology will make greater strides in a healthcare industry which has been slow to adopt, driven by financial incentives (e.g., government subsidies) and employees and consumers demanding better and more accessible information (e.g., transportable e-records) as their share of healthcare spending increases. [Again, I think this is pretty logical and driven by some of the government initiatives. I expect healthcare technology and services will be a hot industry for the next 5 years. At the same time, there has been lots of carnage on the road to make EMRs and PHRs and other tools work over the years. Will this be the time? Maybe.]
   
3. Healthcare reform will continue across developed (U.S. and EU countries) and developing (China) markets, focused on increasing access to affordable and quality patient care. These initiatives are likely to be incremental due to political and economic (budget) considerations. [I’m not so sure I see this. Other countries are down a very different path. I think they will wait a few years to see what our reform efforts bear before engaging on massive reform efforts.]
   
4. Consolidation will be a major theme in 2010 as insurers and hospitals seek additional leverage in contract negotiations, and pharmaceutical companies explore transformational mergers to broaden product lines, strengthen geographic breadth (emerging markets) and seek to manage earnings given major patent expirations in the near term. [An economic certainty.]
   

These were definitely interesting, but it left me lacking. What about health reform – will anything change in 2010? What about personalized medicine? What about health 2.0? What about consumer engagement? What about chronic conditions like obesity and diabetes?

IT growth; reform; consolidation; and international investment could apply to almost any industry.