BAH on Demographic Changes

BAH (Booz Allen Hamilton) has a business publication called Strategy and Business which has some great research.  I found this recent article on the changing demographics worldwide to be interesting and relevant to what we see in the US (which has a big implication on healthcare).

Here are a couple of quotes and facts from the article:

“To prepare for the implications of aging populations, individuals, organizations, and society as a whole must confront assumptions that are no longer valid.”

• According to United Nations projections, the proportion of the global population over 65 years old will triple between now and 2100, from 7 percent to 21 percent.
• Assumption 1: We’ll work long enough to pay for our retirement. …But suveys show that, until the age of 75 or so, people consistently underestimate the length of their retirement and under-provide for it financially.

• Assumption 2: As our society gets richer, we can afford to retire earlier. The basic flaw in this is that people are not taking into account increasing longevity and its associated higher costs.

• Assumption 3: It is useful to retire people early, because there are not enough jobs for everyone.

• Assumption 4: Income and status at work rise linearly, and people retire at their most senior position.

• Assumption 5: We accumulate assets while working and spend them during retirement.

• Assumption 6: During retirement we won’t change residences more than once.

• Assumption 7: The state will provide social and health-care services for us in our later years, allowing our children to inherit a significant portion of our estate.

• For a couple who reach the age of 65, there is a 50 percent chance one of them will survive to the age of 90, and a 17 percent chance that one will reach 100.

“Restricting compulsory retirement will foster — or force — changes in work culture and minimize ageism. Our mental model is already changing from one of a ‘cliff edge,’ with an abrupt change from work to retirement, to more of a ‘plateau.’ “

All of this will have big implications on how we pay for healthcare, what types of services are needed, how we interact with these groups, etc.