Can Demographics Predict Adherence – FICO?

Several people have asked me about the FICO adherence scoring tool.  I (like many of you in the adherence business) am fascinated by the concept on using data to predict adherence and subsequently customize programs around that.  On the flip side, consumers may be a little paranoid about this based on comments on the NY Times article.

Ultimately, there are a few questions:

  1. Can you predict adherence?
  2. What data do you need access to?
  3. How accurate is the prediction?
  4. Does the prediction change based on drug type, duration on therapy, health literacy, etc.?
  5. What can you do with the prediction to influence it?
Traditionally, a demographic centric model has shown some attributes such as acknowledging that females are less adherent than males.  But, most of the attributes that I’m familiar with as predicting adherence fall into two buckets:
  1. Healthcare centric data – number of prescriptions, copay amount, formulary status
  2. Consumer provided information – PAM score, Merck Adherence Estimator

I highlighted some of these things in my 15 Things You Should Know About Prescription Non-Adherence post.  The one item that seems to fall across both healthcare and non-healthcare data is past behavior.  This could certainly play into a credit score or even some type of preventative health score.  Do you get your screenings done?  Have you filled other medications on a regular basis?  Do you have and use a PHR? 

Lots more to come on this topic over time, but this is certainly an area with many eyes on it.

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2 Responses to “Can Demographics Predict Adherence – FICO?”

  1. Long an advocate of the value of adherence in treatment, one of the major problems I personally have run into is the now common practice of auto-fill of my prescription is actually seemingly making me less adherent. Since my pharmacy chain fills my prescription about 8 days early, every 5 months I have an extra full prescription. As I start to accumulate the pills, I don’t go get my prescription filled.

    I understand their financial incentive to fill early and get the extra sales but this is wasteful and increasing the cost of care for all. APhA needs to help curb this practice and come to a more appropriate auto-fill schedule.

    • Thanks Thomas. I agree. I’m a fan of the auto-refill program from the perspective of administrative simplification, but they need to adjust the refill date based on the total days supply dispensed over the prior 12-months (or some period) so that stockpiling doesn’t happen. There are some ways technically to accomplish this and also ways to reach out to the patient electronically to see if they’re ready. Good idea; poor execution in many cases.

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