Based on IMS data, prescription growth continues to slow especially at mail order where it’s negative. Interestingly, in a report by Barclay’s Capital, they estimate that Caremark will grow mail by 10% next year, Express Scripts will lose mail scripts by about 0.5%, and Medco will only grow by 0.8%.
Medco is easy to understand since they are currently the market leader in terms of mail order penetration. The Express Scripts number requires some additional analysis. Is it due to client loss? Is mail just not growing? The Caremark growth is meaningful.